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Thoughts on the immediate outcome of the imperialist war
by John Lacny
Thursday, Apr. 10, 2003 at 12:31 PM
Imperialism may be able to resolve some of the contradictions in the short-term, but they are about to face some difficulties -- and we should do our best to make things even more difficult for them
At the outset of the war, and even a week or so into it, I predicted the quick downfall of the Iraqi Ba'athist regime, and that has come to pass, with one caveat: the imperialists have essentially "declared victory" even though they still have sizable pockets of Ba'athist military strength to wipe out. The final crushing of these elements is inevitable; however, the Bush regime has established the general feeling among the US population that the war is more or less "over," so that any ongoing military operations can be cast as attacks on recalcitrant Ba'athist elements, whether they are or not. (All military resistance to the coming occupation will likely be characterized as the actions of "Saddam Hussein loyalists," whether they are or not.)
On another propaganda front, the enthusiasm of the Iraqi population for the US troops is -- with the notable exception of Kurdistan -- obviously being greatly exaggerated in the bourgeois press. Over and over they've shown the same video of US troops and Iraqi civilians toppling the giant Saddam Hussein statue in Baghdad. It's obvious from the photographs taken from the air that the crowd there numbered a few hundred people (I'm always one to underestimate crowd size at demonstrations, but I think others will back me up on this). I've been in larger demonstrations than that in Pittsburgh, for chrissakes, and Baghdad is a city of 5 million people. It should go without saying that the cathartic outpouring of hatred for the Ba'athist regime on the part of these people is genuine and entirely justified, even if it is also mixed up with the desire to put on a good show for the new tough guy on the block. But it's obvious that far more people were taking the much more intelligent and practical step -- after years of privation -- of going "shopping for free."
It's possible that the imperialists -- even if the military occupation ends up installing a very narrowly-based puppet regime, as they seem intent on doing with Chalabi -- will be able to stabilize the situation for at least a few years, because the lifting of the murderous sanctions and the consequent improvement in people's living standards will be associated in people's minds with the imperialist invasion.
The Kurdish national struggle is the most immediate problem facing Washington, its London satrapy, and their incipient puppet junta in Iraq. Nevertheless, the two ruling parties of Iraqi Kurdistan (the PUK and KDP) seem housebroken enough that they will not muster more than perfunctory grumbling if the US quashes their ambitions. It all matters very little to Washington so long as all the oil transactions are carried out in dollars rather than euros (with a suitable level of direct concessions for US oil companies, of course) and the spoils for local clients are distributed in such a manner as to keep everyone happy. In order to satisfy the Turks, Washington will probably broker some sort of deal which gives the Kurds token jurisdiction over the oilfields of Kirkuk and Mosul -- but not in a way that irritates Turkey. Despite Kurdish hatred for Turkey, the PUK and KDP would likely accept such a token gesture -- as their willingness to sell out the PKK struggle in Turkish Kurdistan for the benefit of their imperialist paymasters so richly attests.
Meanwhile, the only other forces that have the level of political organization to organize resistance to the occupation and the puppet regime in the short term are the pro-Iranian Shi'ite imams and militias. Given the fading luster of Iran's "revolutionary" elan, a repeat of the Lebanon scenario seems unlikely, although not impossible. That such politically unpalatable Islamist elements (and we should not forget to mention the fiercely reactionary Sunni elements such as al-Qaeda, who have ideological/religious hatred for Shi'ites and will therefore not get much popular support in Iraq but who could easily complicate things by causing a lot of havoc for the wrong reasons) should necessarily be out-front in the anti-imperialist movement would be deeply troubling, but should not be surprising. It is a product of two things: (1) the physical liquidation of the left by the Ba'athists, long encouraged by the imperialists for obvious reasons, which now has the effect of facilitating the reimposition of an outright colonial protectorate; and (2) the world-historical setbacks (for that is what they are) that we have all suffered since 1989-91, which will make it difficult for socialists to rejuvenate the workers' movement and the people's struggles (even though a focus on militant organizing among key sectors such as oil workers -- who must be heavily Shi'ite -- is a key task for the left now).
In other words, things look bleak for Iraq, although the worldwide struggle continues. I would not underestimate the extent to which the imperialists have overreached, for example. The antiwar movement exacted a real price from them, so that they had to expend huge reserves of political capital to go forward with this war. The imperialists' crowing "success" is of course a setback for this movement, but probably not for very long. We should prepare for the struggle against the next war or high-profile case of imperialist subversion and/or repression, while those of us in the imperialist heartland must also focus on the ongoing economic crisis and resultant discontent (which must be carefully stoked to a fire by left organizers!) on the homefront.
Worldwide Struggle
by Imperialist Paymaster
Friday, Apr. 11, 2003 at 3:39 PM
How's that worker's paradise handling their political dissent lately? Lots of arrests! No doubt provoked by the gusanos who have materialistic ambitions of eyeglasses and shoes.
Oh yeah they just executed some hijackers of that ferry boat. Imagine a death penalty in an enlightened socialist island of brothers and sisters united in the struggle? You don't have to imagine, my brothers, it is a reality.
I think we should follow the inspiration of El Jefe Major Castro and stop wasting time with lawyers. Summary trial then firing squads!
Struggle with this.
the "highlight" of the show
by Jani
Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2003 at 2:38 AM
You were right about the Saddam statue toppling.. There were only a few hundred people, most were soldiers, and some of the civilians were playing parts.. go here to see more information and a picture:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2842.htm
ANARCHY in THE UK!
by Prodigal Yunzer
Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2003 at 3:20 PM
But not in Iraq!!! that is our poetic chant!
Why did CNN have to show those Baghdadburgers the Rodney King trial verdict tape anyhow? I think that was unprincipled.
No Evie,this is not anarchy, it's chaos
by V
Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2003 at 10:45 PM
Don't worry, everything is under control. The PNAC let them have their fun for a few days, and I was with them in spirit. Just an excuse to put Baghdad's finest back on the beat. The same folks who brutalized and tortured the people of Baghdad are back on the job, backed by the Marines.
What, did you think Saddam was personally maiming and twisting thumbscrews? No more than Dubya was flipping the switch in the Texas death house.They consider themselves overqualified. These are jobs for local cops and corrections Car battery to the genitals? Call Baghdad PD. Plunger up the ass?Call NYPD. The bosses just order the dramatic stuff such as VX and cluster bombs, which apparently are a big hit with the children of Baghdad.
Too Bad The Human Shields Left
by Prodigal Yunzer
Wednesday, Apr. 16, 2003 at 11:23 AM
They could be the new Suede Denim Secret Police.
not all the human shields are gone
by aslan
Wednesday, Apr. 16, 2003 at 3:52 PM
Here's an extract from the latest message from Kathy Kelly (Voices in the Wilderness) in Baghdad, dated April 13:
At least a dozen soldiers have stopped to talk with us since we began the vigil at 3 this afternoon. "OK, can you tell us your side of the story?" asked one young man. "Can I sit there with you for awhile?" asked
another. Each of them has assured us that they didn't want to kill anyone. One young man said he was desperate for financial aid to care for his wife and child while struggling to complete college studies and work full time. He felt he could gain some respect in this world and also help his family by joining the Marines. He's relieved that he was stationed at the rear of a line coming up from the south. His role was to guard prisoners. He didn't shoot anyone. But he saw US soldiers shoot at a civilian car with three passengers as it approached. The child in the car survived - both of his parents were immediately killed. "They could have shot the tires," said the soldier. "Some just want to kill."
One soldier offered earnest concern for us, saying "You're sitting in a dangerous place." We smiled. "Thanks," I said, "But we've been in a dangerous place for the past three weeks." He was puzzled. "What they mean," said a soldier standing next to him, "is that they've been here all through three weeks of bombing."
"Do you try to put yourselves in our shoes?" asked one soldier after he'd respectfully listened to me explain major contradictions between US rhetoric and practice regarding Iraq. "Well, yes," I said, "We try. We're taking
the same risk as you by being here, and perhaps an even greater risk since we're unarmed and unprotected. Actually, just now we're lucky not to be
burdened by all that heavy gear." "Yeah," said the soldier, "It's really hot. I don't have much of an appetite. I just give away most of my rations, - give 'em to these people."
Hassan, one of the shoeshine boys, came over to join us, carrying a ration packet. He opened it, came across processed apple spread, and a few other curious items, then decided to donate it to us. Now the flies have discovered it. It looks like we're on "lock-down" for a while longer. Iraqi minders are gone, --US soldiers are here. They're uncoiling barbed wire at the intersection. Anyone wanting to walk across the street is stopped, questioned and searched. Since I began this letter, there have been four huge explosions nearby. Looting and burning continue, here in Baghdad. I'm sick of war-disgusted to the point of nausea. I think all of us at this intersection, residents of the Al Fanar, journalists in the Palestine Hotel next door, and soldiers on patrol, share the same queasy ill feeling. The line, "War is the health of the state" makes no sense whatsoever here.
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